Mathematics is the MOTHER of all sciences. It is used in different streams of science, as well as engineering, economics and geography. The application part of this subject is used across different streams. However, mathematics and cricket betting? It will create disbelief even among the hard-core math lovers. In this blog post, we will decode the mystery and show how you can use the subject to win cricket bets.
Odds in Cricket BettingÂ
‘Odd’ is a common word used in cricket betting. The word refers to the probability of occurrence of an event. What does an event mean? In IPL betting, an event may be anything that you place your bets on. For example, it could be whether a certain bowler will take 5 wickets in a match or a certain top-order batsman can hit a ton etc. You can also bet on the match result, toss outcome and simply anything else relevant to a particular match or a cricket tournament.
The math behind odds and betting can help you figure out if a bet is worth pursuing. To start with, you must have a good understanding of odds and their types. There are three different types of odds – decimal, fractional and moneyline.
These various types of odds represent different formats for assessing probabilities of events. They are mostly used by betting platforms or bookmakers. Interestingly, each odd is convertible into another. Once the probability of an outcome, represented through odds, is clearly known, a bettor can decide whether or not a bet is profitable.
Conversion of OddsÂ
Though finding odds involves complicated calculations, the basic concept is simple and straightforward. You should have a clear understanding of all three types of odds and how to convert them into probabilities.
- Decimal odds refer to the amount that is won for every bet worth $1 dollar. For example, if the odds are 2.00 and a certain IPL team wins, the bettor will receive a payout of $200 for every $100 betted.
- Fractional odds are also called traditional odds or British odds. They are presented through a fraction or a ratio. For example, 5/1 or five-to-one.
- Moneyline odds are also called American odds. They are assigned a plus or minus sign. The plus sign is assigned to an odd with lower probability and higher payout.
Many tools are available to convert these three types of odds. Online T20 exchange betting apps and sites offer options to display the odds in different formats.
Odds and Probability: Are They Same?
Both odds and probability are common words used in cricket betting. They represent the chance of an event taking place in the context of cricket betting. Probability is calculated as a percentage chance whereas odds can be expressed in different formats as mentioned before. Odds are expressed as the ratio of probability of the occurrence of an outcome to the probability of non-occurrence of an outcome.
How to Convert Odds into Probabilities?
There is a simple formula to convert any type of odds into implied probability.
Implied Probability of an Odd = Stakee / Total Payout
Here, Stake = Amount Betted
Let us explain it with an example. A betting platform displays the fractional odds of Royal Challengers Bangalore defeating Kolkata Knight Riders at 8/13. Put the numbers in the formula and the result is 61.5%. The lower the number, the lower the probability of the outcome.
You will get back your initial bet if you win it. For example, you will win $61.50 and get back the initial $100 as well.
Remember that odds keep on changing as bets come in, affecting probability estimation with time. Furthermore, the odds displayed on betting platforms or by bookmakers can vary slightly or significantly, implying that the odds displayed on a particular platform are not always correct.
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T20 Betting: Employ Your JudgmentÂ
Backing winners is not always important. However, one must do it if the odds accurately predict the chance of winning. In some IPL matches, it is easy to predict that Royal Challengers Bangalore will lose to Kolkata Knight Riders, given their consistently dismal performance for years. Therefore, will you want to place a bet of $100 for a profit of $61.50? To determine whether a T20 betting opportunity is profitable, assess the probability of an outcome and check if it is greater than the bookmaker’s implied probability.
Final Words
The displayed odds never represent the true chance or probability of an event happening or not happening. A bookmaker will always add a profit margin in these odds. This means the payout received by a successful bettor will always be less than what he/she should have received if the odds had represented the true chances.
The bookmaker should correctly estimate the true chance or probability of an outcome to display the odds in such a way that he can make profits irrespective of the outcome of the event.
Now you understand the math behind cricket betting?
